I do not speculate, I calculate
The amount of BBP staked today due to PODC is well over 100M.
If PODC is gone, stake requirement will also be gone. It is only logical to assume some of the holders will sell off their BBP then. (Yes, some will bury it into masternodes, but we cannot assume all will do that.)
Any sales with today's weak buy board will push the price down (3 satoshis or less).
It is hoped that POG-2 will bring in cash (via new users), but as said, that is hope. There is not even an estimate on how many new users will bring in how much cash.
I understand and agree with the notion of a drop in the short term which would bring in growth for the long term; but we need to clarify what is short term and what is long term. This is the crypto world, and most people in this world would say one year is long term. That is a definition I tend to agree with. If we are on the same page about the term, then fine - I can hold on to my coins for a year for a rise back to 30+ satoshis (That was where I jumped on the boat)
Having said that, POG-2 may be tuned to promote staking further, such that longer-term hodlers of coins get a bigger return when they tithe. This would reduce the sell pressure created by PODC staking gone. This however, would be real life repeating itself here: "rich gets richer". Well, I guess we cannot really escape basic principles of life even in the crypto world
I just wanted to quickly jump in and add a distinction to the conversation regarding "rich get richer" vs POG2:
First differences between algos:
Proof-of-stake: Entire free balance in stake * interest_component = interest_earnings (Rich definitely get richer based on total balance)
Proof-of-stake BiblePay: 62% of our money supply is tied up in Sancs, so 38% of money supply is available to "stake" a reward
Proof-of-Giving2: Instead of basing the pool weight on the sowers amount_in_stake (this would be considered the unlocked coin_amount*age) , we base the pool weight on : Tithe amount given with a required Spent coin > than difficulty level.
Notice the difference here: In Scenario A, we reward a user entirely by the proven unlocked stake balance.
In Scenario B, we base the tithe_weight on the TITHED AMOUNT, and this amount must be spent out of a coin meeting the Difficulty requirements of the round.
Yes, I admit that richer users will have more free coins to tithe with, but note that the Actual act of tithing, the actual amount tithed drives your tithe_weight (not your available stake weight). And note that in POG2, you must stake a coin and spend your coin age (so this cannot be repeated over and over until the coin ages again). Also note that since the coin value must be greater than the tithe amount, one who spends a large coin will give up all of its age for quite a long period giving others in our ecosystem a long chance to tithe.
I don't have a scientific study of this effect, but if I were to guess I would "assume" forcing the spending of a single required coin will cause a whale to lose at least 50% of the benefit of (having whale resources available, this is because with POS you can use as many coins necessary to achieve
total coin*age, where in POG you need one specific aged coin > min_amount for the round - and once its spent it is out for a while). Remember the whales only have 38% of the money supply since they have the sancs tying up their capital.... EDIT: More of a refined thought; to demonstrate this in contrast to POS: With an average difficulty level of 650 in POG2, you need to spend a 6 day old coin of value > 2500 but you can only tithe up to 270 from that coin. So coins don't go as far as POS - and ultimately weight is based on what you tithed.